Analysis of China Instrument and meter Market Development in the next five years

This year, Chinese Instrument Industry Association in 12th Five-Year "development planning" instrumentation industry pointed out that the rapid changes in market demand, product structure adjustment urgently, especially the country to vigorously promote energy-saving emission reduction and green economy, modern manufacturing industry, clean energy, large aircraft, ocean engineering, such as the smart grid projects, city rail traffic, the people's livelihood other emerging industries, to provide a broad market opportunities for instrument industry. And the traditional service market, such as thermal power, metallurgy and other industries, is slowing down. The market demand is big, the opportunity is many, the change is intense, the industry adjustment structure, the upper level task is very difficult.

Next year, the petrochemical industry added value growth slowed

Now, the beginning of the year is drawing to an end, and our instrumentation industry services in the petrochemical, steel and other industries have also appeared not very positive signal. For example, in November 24th, the Ministry of industry and information technology report and China Industrial Economic Research Institute of the Academy of Social Sciences jointly issued the 2011 China industrial economic operation in autumn showed that from 1 to October, the petrochemical industry grew by 14.5%, faster than the above scale industrial added value growth rate. But at the same time, the report predicts that the growth rate of China's petrochemical industry will gradually slow down next year because of the adverse effects of lower demand on petrochemical products and the pressure on energy conservation and emission reduction. Under the guidance of many factors, the instrument and meter industry will face structural inflection point.

1) the overcapacity problem shows that the iron and steel industry is going from here. After a few years of rapid development, China's steel industry is entering the peak, and the problem of overcapacity has gradually emerged. In the days prior to the convening of the seventh session of the Bohai steel market forum, the Ministry official pointed out that in 12th Five-Year, China's steel demand will enter the peak arc area, about 8 tons, the running trend of the industry will show a low growth rate and low profit. Improving steel standards and speeding up product upgrading will be an important task for the steel industry during the 12th Five-Year.

2) analysis of low level repeated production in instrument and meter industry. The domestic and foreign instrument industry still has a huge gap, such as the lack of core technology, low level repetition, stability and reliability of products are not solved, still heavily dependent on imports in the high-end precision instruments, a large number of imports caused adverse impact on the development of industry, and the low level of instrument production is repeated prominent.

3) selected instruments and meters of 2011 major technical equipment. In order to improve the level of development of the equipment manufacturing industry, the development of strategic emerging industries, promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, to meet the needs of major technical equipment for national economy and national key construction projects, the Ministry of industry and information technology organization completed the "independent innovation of major technical equipment catalog (2011 edition, draft)" the preparation work.

4) the total installed capacity of power generation exceeded 1 billion kilowatts by the end of October. SERC director Tan Rongyao said today, as of the end of October this year, the national total installed capacity has exceeded 1 billion kilowatts, the whole year is expected to reach 1 billion 40 million kilowatts. Tan Rongyao said in a ABB power world forum today, although the total installed capacity has exceeded 1 billion kilowatts, but the growth rate is still lower than the growth rate of the total electricity, so next year if the contradiction between coal and electricity to the case of weak to solve and hydropower, power supply will remain tight.

The next 5 years, China's market demand for various types of instrumentation is very large, mainly:

1 、 Industrial Automation Instrument and control system

At present, the operation of the national economy is in a special period, in the sustained rapid and healthy development at the same time, in infrastructure, basic industries, agriculture, real estate and other high-tech fields to increase investment. Therefore, the various sectors of the national economy in the next period of time, to build a number of major projects at the same time, there are a large number of enterprises to improve product quality, improve economic efficiency to maintain strong social competitiveness, the need for technological transformation, therefore, from the national economic development trend of industrial automation instrumentation and control system will be formed great social demand. The next five years, the average annual growth rate of demand can reach more than 15%.

In 2003, the electric power industry of new installed capacity of 30 million kilowatts, the year 2004 is expected to add installed capacity of 40 million kilowatts, the next five years, the power industry will maintain an annual increase in installed capacity of 40 million kilowatts, the new project to estimate the industrial automation instrument and control system for the annual increase of 15%. At present, most of the main control systems in petrochemical systems are imported products. With the improvement of the reliability of domestic systems, they will win a certain market share, and it is estimated that the demand will increase by at least 5% annually. Metallurgical industry in 2003 steel output of 2.22 tons, an annual increase of 21.9%; steel output of 2.41 tons, an annual increase of 25.3%; ten non-ferrous metals increased by 19.1%; alumina increased by 11.2%. The current regulation of the overheated metallurgical industry is aimed at sustainable development, and in the next five years, it is estimated that at least 15% of the annual demand level will be maintained. Large ports, building materials, light industry, the next five years, there are a number of new projects, it is estimated that the demand for these industries will be increased by more than 10% annually. The field of environmental protection is one of the national key support for the development of the fifteen period, is a new field of automation instrumentation and control system needs to open up; other aspects such as the modernization of agriculture, building automation, warehouse automation, traffic automation and other city market demand growth is a new hot spot.

The task of technological transformation of China's industrial enterprises is quite formidable, the next five years will still have a batch of 200 thousand kilowatts of small power generating units, more than 50 sets of medium-sized ethylene plant, 70 refineries, more than 500 reheating furnaces, about 200000 sets of industrial boilers are required to carry out technological transformation, a large part to improve the level of automation, to a new type of digital instrumentation to update the original analog instrument.

2. Scientific instruments

Scientific instruments are classified according to the original mechanical system, instruments and meters, including various kinds of analytical instruments, as well as three kinds of optical instruments, testing machines and laboratory instruments. Optical instruments including microscope (biological microscope, reflecting microscope and electron microscope etc.), land surveying and mapping instruments (theodolite, level), optical instrument (tool microscope, projector, angle measuring instrument and machine tool accessory optical instrument), physical optical instrument (spectrograph, spectrometer, spectrophotometer, monochromator, ellipsometry, refractometer etc.) and optical instruments, etc.. Test machine mainly includes all kinds of metal materials testing machine, non-metallic material testing machine, nondestructive flaw detector and dynamic balancing machine, etc.. Laboratory instruments mainly include precision balance, drying box, vacuum instrument, strain gauge, environmental test instrument, calorimeter and acoustic instrument, etc.. The following are described in four parts: analytical instruments, optical instruments, testing machines and laboratory instruments.

(1) analytical instruments

China's imports of analytical instruments have remained high for many years. According to customs statistics, the total value of physical and chemical analysis instruments imported by China in 2003 was US $1 billion 190 million, an increase of 44.6% compared with 2002. That domestic products in the technical level, variety, quality, degree of automation, intelligent and complete with respect to the international level of similar products compared to a large gap, but also that the user of the high level of analytical instrumentation products growing demand.

The main products are mass spectrometer, nuclear magnetic resonance spectrometer, chromatograph, chromatograph mass spectrometer, plasma spectrometer, sewage monitor, gas and smoke monitor, high performance fluorescence spectrometer, etc.. From the level of performance analysis of imported products, the proportion of medium and high-grade products were 55% and 45% respectively. With the use of microelectronic technology and computer technology as well as new technology and new materials to improve the level of domestic analytical instruments, the growth of imported products will gradually decrease.

The next five years, demand for petroleum, chemical, metallurgy, electric power and other major user departments, with the technical level of the mid late 90s accounted for 60% of complete analytical instrument and low-grade analysis instruments accounted for 25%, accounting for 15% of high-end analytical instruments. National and enterprise research institutions and technology centers need digital, intelligent and highly automated analytical instruments. In the biomedical field, large hospitals and scientific research units need reliable, intelligent and highly automated analytical instruments, and small and medium-sized hospitals mainly require medium and low grade products. The field of environmental protection needs air and water monitoring and complete system, in the low-end products accounted for 65%, in the high-end products accounted for 35%, light industry, textile and other applications to other low-end products accounted for 35%, accounting for 50% of high-grade mid-range products, accounted for 15%.

China's analytical instruments are the fastest developing instruments in scientific instruments. The average annual growth rate of analytical instruments in the 95 period is over 30%. At present, with the rapid development of the national economy, scientific research, strengthen the improvement of people's life and join the WTO, many domestic industries gradually with international standards, with the analysis of online rapid detection of industrial product quality, food safety and environmental pollution of toxic and harmful matter field of life science attention, can predict the domestic demand for analysis of instrument capacity in the next five years will maintain rapid growth trend.

(2) optical instruments

Optical instruments are widely used in various fields of national economy and people's lives. At present, the supply and demand situation of optical instruments can be summarized as follows: the quantity of production is large, the range of increase is obvious, and the supply and demand are basically in balance. In part, the low-end products appear in high-end products and pile up in excess of requirement, less variety and more, and there is obvious gap gap and the performance of foreign products. In 2003, the sales of domestic optical instruments reached 12 billion 950 million yuan, with an annual growth rate of 41.2%; in 2003, the import of optical instruments amounted to 1 billion 690 million US dollars, with an annual growth rate of 125.2%.

By 2008, the demand for optical instruments will be up to 4 million units, of which the output of binoculars and telescopes will reach 2 million units. Product structure is the demand for the universal medium and low grade products is higher than the demand for high and medium grade products; the demand for mature products is greater than the new developed products; the demand for famous brand products is better than the demand for ordinary products. Biological microscope, stereomicroscope, theodolite level, projector, visible spectrophotometer, UV visible spectrophotometer, products listed in the atomic absorption spectrophotometer, Abbe refractometer, demand binocular telescope, astronomical telescope is still in a large amount of all kinds of optical instruments.

(3) testing machine;

For many years, the domestic market demand of the test machine is characterized by large quantity and wide range of products, such as hydraulic universal testing machine, hardness tester and other conventional products. But in recent years, the electronic universal testing machine, electro-hydraulic servo testing machine, high frequency fatigue testing machine, hardness tester, digital electronic, digital, automotive, aerospace special destructive and non destructive devices demand more and more. The next test machine will face the proportion of computer, intelligent, digital, multifunctional, mechatronic products market share increased significantly, demand will greatly special products, a variety of online detection, quality control and other equipment to climb.

Since the late 80s so far, foreign machine product technology upgrading speed more quickly, its potential function, long-term stability and operating characteristics of far more than China's products, and there are a variety of 1/4 is still in the blank; so it is not completely control the penetration of foreign products to China market test machine. In 2003, the domestic test machine sales reached 843 million yuan, with an annual growth rate of 6.7%; in 2003, the import of test machines reached 203 million US dollars, with an annual growth rate of 21.3%.

The total demand of the domestic market can reach more than 70 thousand units by 2008. Among them, the electromechanical integration products will be 50~60%. The demand for the metal testing machine is about 18500 Taiwan (sets), non metal testing machine 17500 Taiwan (sets), process testing machine 4500 Taiwan (sets), deformation detection equipment 2000 (sets), balance machine 6000 Taiwan (sets), and the impact of vibration table Taiwan 1000 Taiwan (sets), nondestructive testing instrument 25000 Taiwan (sets), auto balancing machine 1500 Taiwan (sets), up to 1500 kinds of varieties of products.

(4) laboratory instruments

Domestic market demand for high gear laboratory equipment grew rapidly, and demand for low-grade products grew steadily. With the rapid development of microcomputer, the microcomputer, modular design and network control technology of large and medium-sized sets of equipment are developing day by day, which makes the demand for intelligent products of laboratory instruments rise. The next five years, the estimated annual demand for precision weighing scales about 22 thousand instruments; environmental testing equipment 25 thousand units (including drying box, heat meter); thermal equipment demand of about 800 units; large dynamic testing system testing instrument in the annual demand of about 400 units, small instrument needs more than 25000 years, acoustics and vibration instrument annual demand of 5000; annual demand of laboratory centrifuge speed large capacity and high speed and large capacity are about 250; low, annual demand of about 1900 units of centrifuge.

3. Medical instruments

China has a population of 1 billion 300 million, more than 310 thousand medical and health institutions, and a broad market for medical instruments. Along with our country economy from food and clothing into a well-off, people's living standards and medical conditions have improved significantly, Chinese medical instrument has become one of the world's ten big emerging markets, has become Asia's largest market outside japan.

With China's further reform and opening up, first of all, the community health service will be further expanded, and the rural medical conditions further improve, to make up the large volume of the objective need of conventional diagnosis and treatment instrument. Secondly, China has a population of nearly 1 billion 300 million, more than 65 of the population accounted for the proportion of the population has more than 6%, has entered the aging society, so that the total demand of market of our country medical instrument is higher than the international market growth rate. Third, our common tumors, cerebrovascular disease, respiratory system disease is the highest mortality rate of the disease, but hepatitis and other infectious diseases and other diseases where schistosomiasis is still a serious threat to people's health, therefore, is also in the transformation from developing countries to developed countries spectrum of diseases in our country, more and more security requirements of medical instruments reliable meet the market supply. Fourth, with the gradual implementation of the medical insurance system for urban workers, the medical institutions will gradually change to a clear division of labor, and the number of comprehensive all-round hospitals will be curbed. On this basis, it is predicted that the conventional diagnosis and treatment instruments corresponding to the basic diagnosis and treatment projects will be greatly increased in the next five years, and the growth rate of high-grade medical instruments will be reduced somewhat. In 2003, domestic medical instruments sold more than 7 billion 800 million yuan, with an annual growth rate of 9.8%; in 2003, the import of medical instruments amounted to 993 million US dollars, with an annual growth rate of 228%. The main imported medical instruments include X ray diagnostic instruments, MRI instruments, patient monitors, ECG recorders and so on. For the next five years, the specific needs of medical instruments are predicted to be:

(1) the varieties with more than 20% growth rate are conventional medical diagnosis and treatment instruments

(2) the growth rate of 10~15% of the varieties are: ECG, bedside monitor, and B type ultrasonic diagnostic instrument, universal diagnostic X ray machine, breathing machine, anesthesia machine, endoscope, shadowless lamp etc..

(3) basically keep the same varieties: X-CT, MRI, color B ultrasound and so on.

(4) the varieties predicting negative growth are X ray stereotactic therapeutic system, gamma knife, etc..

4 、 electronic and electrical measuring instruments

(1) electronic measuring instruments;

The domestic electronic measuring instruments market in recent years, the development speed of domestic enterprises, 2003 sales of about 2 billion 800 million yuan, the annual growth rate of 22.4%; 2003 imports of electronic measuring instruments amounted to $1 billion 5 million, the annual growth rate reached 26.7%. During the fifteen period, the country will develop the information industry to a strategic height, and the industrialization of information technology will become an important turning point for the development of the information industry. The basic means of development, production and maintenance of the information industry is the electronic measuring instruments, electronic measuring instruments to predict information products will have greater development, the next five years will maintain an annual growth rate of 20%, in 2008 domestic sales of electronic measuring instruments is expected to reach 7 billion yuan in.

In addition, the rapid development of China's household electrical appliances, such as digital television, DVD, multimedia products, such as the development and large-scale production, will be for household appliances electronic measuring instruments to bring greater development needs.

(2) electrical measuring instruments and meters;

Electrical measuring instruments industry after decades of development, has formed a certain production scale and capacity, the product has reached a certain level, the bulk of products to meet the basic needs of the domestic market, the market share of more than 95%. Fifteen, the market for high overload, long life, electronic, digital products increased demand, while requiring product standardization, serialization, universal and good performance price ratio. Among them, the demand for induction meters will gradually transition to 25~30 long life, more than 6 times overload capacity meter, and the demand for electronic watt hour meter will be further increased. At the same time, the use of centralized automatic meter reading system for all users to carry out remote meter reading is a trend. In 2003 the domestic electrical measuring instrument enterprises sales amounted to 11 billion 566 million yuan, the annual growth rate of 35.9% in 2003; electrical measuring instruments imports amounted to $215 million, the annual growth rate of 40.1%. in the next 3~5 years of electrical measuring instrument products market demand will increase, the electric instrument industry annual demand will exceed 60 million units (sets). Among them: the electricity meter product demand 48 million sets, the installation type electricity meter 7 million, the portable electricity meter 2 million 500 thousand, the digital instrument 1 million 500 thousand, other instrument demand 1 million. All products are in demand structure changes, the proportion of electronic watt hour meter products will gradually increase the proportion of 2008, to the electronic power meter will be more than 40%; installed electric meter, electric meter, portable digital instrument technology will also increase the level of product upgrading. Thus, in the next 3~5 years, although the total annual demand for products will not change much, but the total sales will continue to increase. In the next 3~5 years, the sales of the whole instrument and meter products will increase by 10% each year, of which the power sector accounts for 90%, and the demand of other departments will be 10%.

5, other kinds of instruments and meters

As China's instruments and meters, equipment and equipment, in addition to the machinery industry, belonging to more than 20 national departments and large group companies, it is difficult to make a comprehensive prediction of the domestic market demand of other types of measuring instruments. But according to the trend analysis of rate trend of China's operation of the national economy and the overall 2003 instruments market sales and growth, preliminary forecast of special equipment development for the next five years more than 20% of the speed measuring instrument categories: special automobile instrument, instrument measurement environment, animal husbandry and fishery special instrumentation, geological exploration and earthquake prediction for nuclear instruments radiation measuring instrument, commodity quality inspection instruments, entry exit inspection and quarantine and other instruments.

In view of strengthening the law enforcement of environmental protection and environmental protection need to accelerate the pace of construction, increasing the environmental protection investment, foster environmental protection industry the new increasing point of national economy, the face of a huge market in China more than 50000 environmental monitoring of more than 18000 key enterprises and urban sewage treatment enterprises and a large number of wastewater station, there will be a big increase environmental instrumentation industrial products market in the future. According to incomplete statistics, in 2003 the domestic environmental monitoring instrumentation dedicated sales of 1 billion 56 million yuan, the annual growth rate of 33%, is expected to 2005 will be expanded to 2 billion yuan, and by 2010 will be more than 6 billion yuan, therefore, the market prospect is very broad. The next 5 years China will need a lot of environmental quality monitoring instrument and automatic monitoring system of flue gas in coal-fired power plant boiler; or on behalf of the analytical instrument monitoring system; surface water quality monitoring instrument and monitoring system; on behalf of the pollution source monitoring instrument and automatic control system in city sewage treatment plant and high concentration organic wastewater for.